Improved detection of abrupt change in vegetation reveals dominant fractional woody cover decline in Eastern Africa

While cropland expansion and demand for woodfuel exert increasing pressure on woody vegetation in East Africa, climate change is inducing cover gain. It however unclear if these contrasting patterns have led to net fractional loss or Here we used non-parametric (WC) predictions breakpoint detection algorithms driven by satellite observations (Landsat MODIS) airborne laser scanning unveil the WC during 2001–2019 over Ethiopia Kenya. Our results show that total was 4-times higher than gain, leading loss. The contribution of abrupt (59%) gradual losses (41%). We estimated an annual rate up 5% locally, with contributing 57% region. Major hotspots degradation corridors were identified inside as well surrounding protected areas, agricultural lands located close agropastoral pastoral livelihood zones, near highly populated areas. As dominant type region, Acacia-Commiphora bushlands thickets ecosystem most threatened, accounting 69% loss, followed montane forest (12%). Although outweighed relatively more gain observed savanna other ecosystems. These reveal marked impact human activities highlight importance protecting endangered ecosystems from increased mitigating impacts supporting sustainable service provision Africa.